Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016524 0.018698 0.021051 0.023790 0.026891 0.030292 0.034309
2025-09-21 0.012785 0.015708 0.019143 0.023479 0.028812 0.035165 0.043318
2025-09-28 0.010496 0.013640 0.017547 0.022763 0.029554 0.038113 0.049743
2025-10-05 0.009515 0.012949 0.017416 0.023661 0.032183 0.043433 0.059462
2025-10-12 0.008650 0.012253 0.017128 0.024220 0.034300 0.048156 0.068727
2025-10-19 0.007975 0.011707 0.016941 0.024831 0.036463 0.053043 0.078586
2025-10-26 0.007200 0.010918 0.016302 0.024689 0.037470 0.056300 0.086307
2025-11-02 0.006585 0.010290 0.015819 0.024693 0.038642 0.059831 0.094673
2025-11-09 0.005949 0.009560 0.015101 0.024247 0.039043 0.062171 0.101333
2025-11-16 0.005563 0.009180 0.014877 0.024537 0.040596 0.066391 0.111300
2025-11-23 0.005121 0.008664 0.014385 0.024333 0.041304 0.069272 0.119267
2025-11-30 0.004878 0.008453 0.014365 0.024898 0.043318 0.074434 0.131487
2025-12-07 0.004402 0.007811 0.013585 0.024117 0.042995 0.075674 0.137118
2025-12-14 0.004056 0.007366 0.013101 0.023811 0.043473 0.078333 0.145510
2025-12-21 0.003681 0.006834 0.012419 0.023084 0.043116 0.079453 0.151143
2025-12-28 0.003585 0.006803 0.012627 0.023995 0.045838 0.086365 0.168206
2026-01-04 0.003447 0.006679 0.012652 0.024562 0.047948 0.092293 0.183875
2026-01-11 0.003326 0.006576 0.012706 0.025182 0.050204 0.098663 0.200949
2026-01-18 0.003120 0.006290 0.012385 0.025038 0.050933 0.102110 0.212420
2026-01-25 0.002949 0.006058 0.012150 0.025042 0.051953 0.106200 0.225542
2026-02-01 0.002742 0.005736 0.011710 0.024589 0.051992 0.108295 0.234627
2026-02-08 0.002629 0.005599 0.011634 0.024884 0.053613 0.113767 0.251407
2026-02-15 0.002474 0.005363 0.011334 0.024677 0.054143 0.116975 0.263492